讲座主题：The Walk-down to Beatable Forecasts: International Evidence
讲座老师：HongpingTan 教授加拿大麦吉尔大学管理学院
讲座时间：2017年12月19日下午2点
讲座地点：文泉楼南401
摘要：We use the framework developed in Richardson et al. (2004) to identify country, firm and analyst characteristics that we expect to be associated with the prevalence of the analyst walk-down forecast pattern. Based on a large sample of 50,649 analysts covering 33,645 firms from 46 countries during 1992-2014, we find that the walk-down pattern positively correlates with country characteristics related to insider trading restrictions and equity sales. It also positively relates to the stock market reward for beating analyst forecasts, firm-level characteristics underlying management concerns with share prices after earnings announcements, and analysts’ incentives to cooperate with management. The effects of these factors on the walk-down pattern are more pronounced in countries with better media-coverage institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that capital market incentives affecting the communication between managers and analysts and the resulting analyst forecast bias involves various forces including a country’s institutional infrastructure, and firm and analyst characteristics.
附专家简介
谭红平，男，加拿大皇后大学博士，现任加拿大麦吉尔大学管理学院教授，博士生导师，主要研究领域为金融信息披露, 分析预测, 国际资本市场，主要代表作如下：
《当分析师发声时，机构投资者会听吗？从目标价格的变化和机构交易中的得出的证据》（When Analysts Talk, Do Institutional Investors Listen?Evidence from Target Price Changes and Institutional Trading）, Financial Review 51, 2016. pp. 191–223, 与 Shannon Lin,Zenan Zhang合著
《地域远近与金融分析师对IPO公司的跟踪》（Geographic Proximity and IPO Firm Coverage）, 2015, Journal of Accounting and Economics 59 (1), pp. 41-59, 与Patricia C. O'Brien合著
《外国机构支持新兴市场的信息传递吗？》（Do Foreigners Facilitate Information Transmission in Emerging Market?）， Journal of Financial Economics 105, 2012, 与Kee-Hong Bae, ArzuOzoguz, 和 Tony S. Wirjanto合著, pp. 209–227
《〈国际会计准则〉强制实施后的外国金融分析师的跟踪分析和准确性》（Foreign Analyst Following and Forecast Accuracy after Mandated IFRS Adoptions），Journal of Accounting Research 49 (5), 2011, 与Shiheng Wang 和Mike Welker合著, pp. 1307-1357
《本地分析师了解的更多吗？对本地分析师和外国分析师表现的跨国研究》（Do Local Analysts Know More? A Cross-country Study of the Performance of Local Analysts and Foreign Analysts），Journal of Financial Economics 88, 2008, 与Kee-Hong Bae 和René Stulz合著, pp. 581–606。《CFA摘要》（CFA Digest， a CFA Institute publication ）2009年2月刊重点文章
《国际会计准则差异：对外国分析师的影响》（International GAAP Differences: The Impact on Foreign Analysts）. The Accounting Review 83, 2008,与Kee-Hong Bae 和Michael Welker合著, pp. 593-628
